2015 Outlook

Weekly predictions and previews from the 'experts'
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Mike
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2015 Outlook

Post by Mike »

Some changes occurred since I wrote this;

American Conference Pacific Division
Honolulu:
Lost: CB Marsh, LB Sapolu (retirement)
Retained: QB Perez, HB Hall, WR Nash, WR Sippio, S Montgomery, CB Hlavcek, DL Payton
Gained: WR Shakes (trade), QB/HB Dantzler (draft), LB Braxton (draft)
Key Stat: Gave up 3rd fewest points in 2014.
Summary: Loss of LB Sapolu is going to hurt, as it is not clear who will replace him. Marsh at CB gave some security to the Hurricanes. There will be a controversy as to who plays WR2, as Nash seems to be a better WR and Sippio a better PR. Will Shakes help this team win, or be so demanding that the team’s chemistry ruptures? Most vets are back, improved talent on offence, the defence is stable, but chemistry is questionable. QB/HB Dantlzer is a great pick, but won’t be a major factor this year. If HON wins, people will say it’s because of shakes, and QB Perez (8th overall rating in career) will still not get his due despite being a low draft pick/free agent.
Team theme: Seeking Perfect Offensive Storm for Hurricane effect. Going for it all in 2015. If so, Shakes first player to get Gold Cup with 3 teams?

Portland:
Lost: DT Barrie, LB Beauchamp, LB Maslowski, CB Sutton, CB Jackson, FB Lacombe, DB Codrington.
Retained: HB By’note, WR Copeland, LB Jurasin, LB Mitchell, DE March,
Gained: CB Henry, LB Wheat, WR Risper, LB Reed
Key stat: 16th offence, DE March led team in sacks in 2014.
Summary: Losing Barrie, Beauchamp, Maslowski, Sutton and Jackson means the Prowlers will need new people to replace about, oh, 300 team tackles out of 853. QB Kane Claunch is good, but no Higgs. OL on steroids should create holes for HB By’note to continue good average. Loss of starting DBs and LBs suggests to retirement and trades suggests that Portland is aiming lower. Great draft esp on defence.
Team theme: Win with Copeland, March, Mitchell, or trade them and rebuild around QB Khari Jones. Prowlers might be attacking this year, or seeking protection in the Prowler’s lair.

Colorado:
Lost: CB Van Joseph, S Reeder, WR Bryan Meier, T Yi
Retained: RB Blake, QB Strickland, TE Luke, LB Penright, DE Collins.
Gained: CB Munson, DE Adams, CB Elpheage.
Key stat: 5th best rush D in division with HB Hall and HB Cates.
Summary: Loss of Van Joseph and S Reeder (3 int) might hurt as they were starters, but COL has a decent stable of DBs. Running game was 10th in the league last year, even with HB Blake. QB Stickland is always a great QB, passing for 17 TDs last year. Rookies great but no immediate impact, so team looks the same as last year. All teams drool over TE Luke.
Team theme: Aiming for playoffs, stay the course unless a great trade pops up. Wildcats are snarling at their enemies, but how much fight is in them?

Everett (Old Steel Valley)
Lost: WR Sir Mawn Wilson, LB Jason Tarkowski
Retained: WR Baker, HB Green, QB Davey, S Mason, LB Cherry, DL Maxie
Gained: DE Cowsette, S Lewis, WR Carter
Key stat: 2014 entrance into playoffs first since 2000.
Summary: The retirements didn’t hurt this team a bit. Strong execution and led by a QB with a 97 rating means this team is ready to compete. QB Davey might be the next great QB that enables the Hawks to soar above the competition. Besides Mason, Cherry and Maxie there’s nothing stupendous about this team, but the rest of the team is quite competent nonetheless. No one should be afraid of Everett’s sacking ability, but the +5 turnover ratio means the team will capitalize on mistakes.
Team theme: Everett will suddenly confront the Pacific division with a balanced team.

North Division:
Fargo:
Lost: HB Grant, T Battle.
Retained: WR Lamb, QB Warner, LB Ranek, S Mounds, WR Stone
Gained: DT Garnett, C Dogins, LB Lape
Key Stat: Led league in passing TDs (23)
Summary: The retirements didn’t mean much. Team is focusing on WR Lamb, who led the league in receiving. The experience of 2nd-year WR Stone should make this passing attack even more fearful. However, while Fargo is ranked higher in first downs, it is ranked lower in scoring. FGO has to put the ball in the end zone more this year, to make up for a questionable defence and porous offensive line. Can the Freeze’s defence keep the opposing offences on ice?
Team theme: QB Warner will air it out, but this exciting style may not be a winning one.

Minnesota (Moblie):
Lost: TE Harris, WR Miller, Sold his Soul to the Devil for great picks.
Retained: WR T. Edwards, HB Smith, WR Williams, TE McAlpine, S Flores, DT Pielech
Gained: LB Dumas, G Momirovic, LB Williams, CB Greenwood, QB Bonner, T Beauford, HB Kirkley
Key Stat: Very low in offence, defence, sacks for, sacks against
Summary: It is difficult to see where this good team went wrong last year. While there are a few holes on defence, the offensive personnel seem above-average. I find it odd that the #1 overall 2013 pick, WR Edwards, gained less than 700 yards last year. This dynamo had only one TD. The QB is taking the blame for the problems, but one must reconsider the Fighting Pike’s offensive plan and whether it fits with their personnel. LB additions look great. This team is so strong that it is releasing decent players. Be careful when you put your toes in that pond, ‘cuz the Fighting Pike look hungry this year!
Team Theme: Don’t expect MIN to be in the gutter like last year!

Peoria
Lost: WR Duper, HB Jones, DE Washburn, T Davis
Retained: QB Garcia, HB Flowers, WR Sloth, WR Speed, CB Hadley, S Kopf, DE Blue
Gained: LB Sasse, TE Savage, HB Pearson
Key stat: PEO had the #3 and #5 WR in Sloth and Speed last year (1200 yds+ each)
Summary: This #3 passing team has decided to ditch QB Garcia because of his poor stats. The rating is low, but he is the only QB to pass for over 4000 yards in 2014. HB Pearson is a great pick for this #17 rush offence, but one must wonder whether the OL is the culprit. PEO has an awesome # of first downs, but gave up the most in the league; either better D or more possession time is necessary. Look to see Pearson getting the ball, and Garcia making a comeback resulting in an overall more balanced offence that keeps the opposing offences off the field. Like pirates who swing on ships’ ropes, Pirate WRs Speed and Sloth intend to swing over the defences’ heads for more TDs this year.
Team Theme: If they translate offensive firepower into more points, watch out!

Springfield
Lost: DE Franklin, S Denton, S Seaton, the actual Gold Cup Trophy (but don’t tell the commish!)
Retained: QB Dinkins, HB McFadden, WR Ashley, TE Lee, S Klaneski, DT Spain, LB Fraley
Gained: S Sargeant, G Knutson, DB Codrington
Key Stat: Won second Gold Cup in 3 years
Summary: This team is a model for all of us. 11th in rushing, 9th in passing, 12th in rush d, 10th in pass D. It just shows you don’t need to be perfect in all things to go all the way! SPR made a determined push to the playoffs last year. HB McFadden was probably the star, with 22 TDs and first overall in yards (beating FWS HB Coleman by ONE yard!) QB Dinkins is a fan favourite, but the O-Line are the unsung heroes. The Slayers killed all playoff opponents last year; will they put the opposition to the sword this time?
Team Theme: Slow and Steady wins the race.

Wichita:
Lost: WR Cooper, T Vavao, HB Johnson
Retained: QB Hamilton, HB Thomas, G Frates, WR Cody, S Polk, S Estrada, LB Price, DE Murphy
Gained: DT Lake, WR Bennet, CB Oliver, K Zendejas,
Key Stat: Barely missed playoffs, #4 pass offence, #17 pass defence
Summary: This team is on the verge of breaking into the playoffs. Improving pass D will help a lot. Wichita’s QB Hamilton had the #1 QB rating last year. HB Thomas just missed getting 1000 yards.
Experienced DL should build up more of a pass rush, while hands on LBs will help block short passes. The Warlords require more discipline as you can’t win with an unruly mob!
Team Theme: Can’t stop me now…but I can’t stop you either.

American Conference, Central Division
Tennessee:
Lost: S Floyd, S Wells, CB Parker, WR Harrell
Retained: QB Graziani, HB Chukma, WRs Knapp, Burley, Bailey and Patten, C Stowers, CB Simmons
Gained: CB Sutton, CB Jackson
Key Stat, 82 sacks, 10 wins could not put this team past first round of playoffs.
Summary: This team had a great season last year, only to fall on the road in the first round. More of a ball-control offence, and not made for spectacular comebacks, despite the amazing talent on the WR corps. Great move to get portland’s starting cornerbacks, this will solidify TEN’s attempt at a Gold Cup Run. No one will soar over these Riverhawks; they will have to take advantage of opportunities when they happen.
Team Theme: Keep FWS, GBY from top spot in division, and be wary of BAT. Then see what happens in playoffs.

Battle Creek (Billings):
Lost: S Wade, LB Rineheart, WR Baker, WR Lewis, CB Derricks, S West
Retained: HB Cates, QB Bonner, WR Allner, T Loos, DE Stephens, S Myles, LB McKeithan, LB Truluck
Gained: T Grace, DT Slappy, WR Brown, LB Brady, S Gater, DE Hosey
Key Stat: #4 offence in yards, #2 passing, #14 rushing despite having HB Cates
Summary: The fact that HB Cates is on the #14 rushing team is quite surprising. GM Stein has his work cut out for him defining this team for the next few seasons: Win now or win later? To Win now, a running-based PPP might be needed, while the win later approach suggests trading Cates away. Then again, TE Bagley and Bacote are fantastic; Bagley was the #1 TE in receiving last year. However, the DT Slappy trade suggests GM Stein wants to win now; Slappy is one of the all-time greats and should help BAT for a few years. Definitely this helps the #15 rush Defence. Picks of WR Brown and LB Brady deserve deep respect, and might shape this team in the future. There seems to be a lot of talent pulling the team in different directions, so a focus might be required if talent doesn’t do the job. Beat FWS last year to keep FWS out of the playoffs, so expect a lot of trash talking from FWS this year….I’m trying to be fair, but it’s hard, as BAT kept FWS from defending the Gold Cup…..grrrr! I don’t know what a ‘Crunch’ is (besides a Canadian chocolate bar), but late in the game, when BAT has the lead, I’m sure HB Cates will be crunching through opposing DLs.
Team Theme: At the moment, to be consistently competitive (8-8 seasons), now, and later.

Fort Wayne
Lost: S Gaines, WR Swayne, T Valvo, LB Fuhler, WR Shakes
Retained: QB Fourcade, HB Coleman, TE Doering, WR Willis, K Vanderjagt, LB Lindamood, CB Thomas
Gained: QB Kelly, T Sheldon, TE VEnisee, QB McNear, FB Wallace
Key Stat: HB Coleman 1340 yards last year.
Summary: Fort Wayne won 2 out of the last four Gold Cups, but could be on a downturn. The team that won those Gold Cups is largely intact, with the loss of WR Shakes, T Valvo, LB Fuhler and S Gaines notwithstanding. WR Shakes might have opened more running room for HB Coleman last year, but Shakes did not help in come-from-behind situations. T Sheldon has a good chance at starting as T2. Going on a safari, this team hopes to bag another Gold Cup.
Team Theme: If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.

Chesapeake: (Black Hills)
Lost: WR Bailey, DT Mayfield, LB Williams, CB Greenwood
Retained: QB Bishop, HB Moore, WR Metcalf, TE McGeoghan, T Burth, LB Winchester, S Robinson
Gained: S Coleman, C Metts, TE Alconel, LB Palmer
Key Stat: The Black Hills franchise made the playoffs 3 out of the last 5 years
Summary: Another very balanced team, whose team stats seemed higher than Gold Cup Champion Springfield. While well-managed, the talent this team is perhaps not strong enough to go farther then the first round of the playoffs. For some reason, BLK’s great stats do not translate into a comparable high number of wins. The emphasis on the passing game (477 attempts) over rushing (363) might put too much pressure on the QB, as he had one of the lowest QB ratings last season. The Tide is hoping to turn into a tsunami to overwhelm the opposition.
Team theme: With all the past success, the theme is : You think you can stop ME?!?!?

Pittsburgh (Mis)
Lost: K Black, DT Bynes, CB Davidson, DT Clubb, LB Dumas
Retained:QB Foggie, HB Morris, G Carr, T Kinnard, DE Spellman, LB Salter, CB Smalls, LB Abercrombie
Gained: WR Miller, FB Hodgins, DL Thrweatt, T Wigfall
Key Stat: #2 rushing team, #18 pass D.
Summary: Two seasons ago, the 336 points put up by this team made the Commish’s day with a high-scoring offence. Strangely, the team faltered last year. Stranger still is the fact that the improvements to this team are not happening on the pass D side of the ball. WR Miller, Hodgins, Thweatt are all good pickups, but the team must gain more first downs (#16) if they are going to cover for their pass D weakness. While the Gladiators have sharpened their swords since last year, they are lucky not to meet the Slayers in the regular season.
Team theme: Score early and often to make the other team react.

Green Bay
Lost: QB Totten, DE Goods, WR Bond, G Young, S Crutchfield
Retained: QB Ragsdale, FB Richardson, WR Sands, TE Jones, LB Williams, DB Staples, DT Light
Gained: FB Sha
Key stat: Gained 3rd most sacks, gave up fewest sacks. Many fumbles.
Summary: This razzle-dazzle offence is fantastic, but the GM has to use antacids because of all the fumbles. GBY had a great season last year, and retained most of the talent. GBY will go far, however injuries could shoot down the Bombers over Fort Wayne or Tennessee. Had the #1 scoring offence in 2014. Danny Ragsdale and TJ Light were perhaps the best trades made in the past two years. With this crazy, risky yet effective passing attack, it is clear that GM Hanlon wants the Bombers to throw ‘bombs away!’ over and over.
Team theme: End Zone or Bust. Win now, worry about tomorrow later.

Connecticut
Lost: LB Sargeant, WR Solomon, CB Hampton, T Tucker, LB Rollins
Retained: HB Moore, HB Dukes, WR Davis, DE Certain, LB Pack, S Thaxton
Gained: QB Franzer, T Davis, DE White, C Milhauser, WR Dues
Key Stat: Dukes never ran for more than 3.2 yds/avg. per season.
Summary: This team has been in the basement for awhile. Has some talent, and made a fantastic move to acquire Franzer. LB Rollins loss will hurt. This team needs to focus on its high-draft pick talent over the past few years, and set performance standards or trade them. Still a relatively younger team, CON has to decide what it wants to accomplish this year, then build on it. Coyotes can often shy away from a fight, but this Coyote team is hungry and will probably improve over last year.
Team theme: Accomplish moderate goals to build confidence, then adjust.


Rochester: ( Madison)
Lost: TE Schucts, C Yilla, QB Franzer, G Knutson, T Lackowski, G TRiggs, LB Rice, DT Slappy
Retained: QB Higgs, QB Carter, TE Williams, HB OURs, WR Mager, DE Mooring, DE Rolle, CB Mulder
Gained: G Parra, T Long, DT Gurley, LB Lindsay, WR Hoag, DE Jones
Key Stat: Won the division after years of being #2, won the Conference championship.
Summary: The trade of Slappy was surprising. This team, though, is probably built to adjust for that. It will be interesting how last year’s Conference champs react to new teams like The Albany Bobs, Pittsburg Davids and the Chesapeake Jasons. Instant rushing rivalries between Pit’s HB Morris, Roc’s HB Ours, and Che’s HB Moore should occur. Roc has a good chance to repeat if they play their game. Rochester is aiming to do more raiding in stadiums for away games.
Team Theme: Win the Division, then see what happens.


Albany: (DAY)
Lost: DT Gurley, LB Lindsay, G Mimrovic, TE Dolph
Retained: QB Marinovich, WR Theus, LB Gizzi , DE Rumishek
Gained: T Lackowski, G TRiggs, LB Rice, TE Harris, G Pino, WR Butler
Key Stat: Despite having the #2 yards passed by a QB, this team is #17 in scoring
Summary: This team is in transition, but really needs to put the ball in the end zone. Pass-happy in the past, we’ll see what the new GM does. Great defence last year. Rushing offence needed to control the ball. G Pino was a fantastic pick for this team that gave up the most sacks. New GM Bob is aiming to burn up the opposing D with a stronger OL this year.
Team Theme: Keep the QB from getting killed, and we have a chance!
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tried to quote... oh well...

Post by Green Bay Bombers »

"With this crazy, risky yet effective passing attack, it is clear that GM Hanlon wants the Bombers to throw ‘bombs away!’ over and over."

Actually, nothing could be further from the truth. This offense is designed to run first, pass after all other options are exhausted. It depends heavily on an ol/te/rb/wr package that springs the long gain run and then complement that with the bomb in the passing attack. Finding the right combination of OL/TE/RB/WRs is a crap shoot. It's like the little girl with curl. When she's good, she's VERY, VERY good... but when she is bad, she is horid. The Bombers problem would appear to stopping opposing offenses... and that appears to be problematic at this point!

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Post by Commish »

Awesome preview Mike. I appreciate the time you put into this.

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Mike
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Post by Mike »

Perhaps I'm just biased regarding the Jimmy teams. A few seasons back I had a very good team, then Louisiana just threw over 400 yards to defeat me (I think that was a conference Championship). So, I respect "Air Hanlon" so much that maybe it clouded my judgement.

Or maybe Jimmy is trying to pretend he won't pass as much this year.... :P
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Post by Mike »

Perhaps I'm just biased regarding the Jimmy teams. A few seasons back I had a very good team, then Louisiana just threw over 400 yards to defeat me (I think that was a conference Championship). So, I respect "Air Hanlon" so much that maybe it clouded my judgement.

Or maybe Jimmy is trying to pretend he won't pass as much this year.... :P
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GEEPERZ...

Post by Green Bay Bombers »

...no really... fer cripes sakes I run a a run conservative offense! Honest Injun! I can't explain the pass... perhaps the game just assesses me that way and goes for it??!!???

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Post by pjohns »

Was gonna say you normally run a run run type offense with all your HB's turned into FB's. Last season it was devastating.

Was it simply a case of the computer going pass crazy as you were trailing ? As soon as you go behind two scores the computer forgets all about rushing and turns into a run n shoot offense !

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well...

Post by Green Bay Bombers »

it's funny, because the reason I went to all FBs is there are no HBs in arena league football. I wanted to extend the realism of that atmosphere to my team.

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Post by Peoria »

That was a fun read and some good insights. Thanks for the post!
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and so it was...

Post by Green Bay Bombers »

"A few seasons back I had a very good team, then Louisiana just threw over 400 yards to defeat me (I think that was a conference Championship)"

But it was HB Rashaan Dumas 56 yard dash in OT that provided the margin of victory! GEAUWD that guy was AWESOME! #1 HOF MATERIAL! That's what this offense is all about... get the right player in the right position at the right time. Shakes was awesome here for that reason. He understood the concept, embraced and executed it.

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Post by portland »

awesome football preview ... and a firm grasp of canadian candy bars.

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Re: 2015 Outlook

Post by TC »

Mike wrote:North Division:
Springfield
Lost: DE Franklin, S Denton, S Seaton, the actual Gold Cup Trophy (but don’t tell the commish!)
Retained: QB Dinkins, HB McFadden, WR Ashley, TE Lee, S Klaneski, DT Spain, LB Fraley
Gained: S Sargeant, G Knutson, DB Codrington
Key Stat: Won second Gold Cup in 3 years
Summary: This team is a model for all of us. 11th in rushing, 9th in passing, 12th in rush d, 10th in pass D. It just shows you don’t need to be perfect in all things to go all the way! SPR made a determined push to the playoffs last year. HB McFadden was probably the star, with 22 TDs and first overall in yards (beating FWS HB Coleman by ONE yard!) QB Dinkins is a fan favourite, but the O-Line are the unsung heroes. The Slayers killed all playoff opponents last year; will they put the opposition to the sword this time?
Team Theme: Slow and Steady wins the race.
First of all, a most excellent preview Mike! Well, except the part about losing the Gold Cup trophy. ;)

Wow..."this team is a model for all of us", what a great compliment. Thank you.

Glad to see the Slayers OL getting some props. The D-line was outstanding in the playoffs after a mediocre regular season, but so far in 2015 they are playing like they did in the playoffs, especially against the run.

I was questioning my decision to trade Blackburn in the deal for Dinkins, especially after I had 2 safeties retire. But, how can you second guess when Dinkins was the QB of the team that won the Gold Cup last year. Do the Slayers win it all without Dinkins?

I have to keep reminding myself of our 'team theme', especially after this week. Still a lot of football left in 2015!

-TC

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Post by Mike »

Well, Everett was 'balanced' enough to take the division....many big names on teams (Copeland, Shakes) were not THAT big producers....Fargo/Lex surprised....MIN did well after losing their starting QB....GBY was end zone focused, did have longest avg catch, but was a balanced offence after all...CON did build confidence, and now has to adjust!....And ROC did win division and 'will now see what happens'.

:)
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Post by pjohns »

Form me T Long and G Parra (moved to T2) were the huge difference. For years i went with slow but bigger offensive linemen, this year (After seeing Springfield open up huge holes against me on offense) i copied them and went for big quick tackles which has paid off - Ours was 2nd leading rusher (nearly 1st).

Defensively i've got younger with some changes on my d-line, LB4 Kodi Lindsay has performed well and i think i've got a star in CB Damien Huren. S Marvin Taylor has moved ahead on the depth chart as well.

Next year T Lincoln Kennedy should look superb and will want to start somewhere. Young TE Boo Williams had a better 2nd year. WR Rob Mager has 3 1000 yard seasons in his 3 years in the league.

I presume QB Higgs will retire but feel happy with Reese and Q.Carter who i hope has a great camp to take over the starting reigns.

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