John Ivanic's Picks for Week 5

[banghart]

After a long retirement from FIFL, and an unsuccessful film career, John Ivanic has returned to where he has made his name. Yes, the John Ivanic will take all the mystery out of the results coming up this week, and tell you what to expect in Week 5 of FIFL.

Steel Valley at Billings-The league has been wanting higher and higher scores, and this game might be a taste of what the league had in mind with all the rule changes. This game will be a high scoring affair with neither club really being able to stop the other. Billings' offense should be able to shred a pourous Steel Valley defense in the air, and Steel Valley should be able to counter with their improved offense. Look for Steel Valley to squeak by a rare road win. The difference is likely to be that Steel Valley is capable of shutting down the dangerous Welsey Cates. Fort Wayne's feature back of Lincoln Coleman was held to only 46 yards, and this should allow Steel Valley to put up another win.
Steel Valley 28 Billings 24

Springfield at Colorado-This is a tough interconference rivalary, and is a much needed win for each club in tough divisional races. The game could have serious playoff implications down the road for tiebreakers. Colorado started the season on a 2 game skid, but has come back with two impressive wins against Wichita and Dayton. Springfield has been up and down so far this season, but should be able to keep it close with the defense. One thing to look far is a lot of sacks. Both Gruden and Stickland have been sacked over 15 times a piece, and their respective defensives have sacked opponents quarterbacks at least 12 times. Sacks will play a huge role in this one, but Rickey Blake will probably be the deciding factor. Colorado should keep things rolling with a big home win.
Springfield 13 Colorado 20

Honolulu at Portland-Well this one should be an easy one for anyone to call. Portland has been a juggernaut as of late, and the acquistion, more accurately called steal, of safety Derek Stingley makes them even more dangerous. Honolulu simply does not have enough firepower on either side of the ball to compete with Portland, particularly on the road. One chink in the armor for Portland is the ground game. Not theirs, but opponents have managed to average 4.6 yards per carry on the ground. This is well above what John Hall has averaged so far this season. Look for him to explode this week with a huge game, if Honolulu can keep things close enough early for Hall to keep getting the ball. Portland is not unbeatable, since Lincoln accomplished this feat on the road, but I would not put money on it.
Honolulu 10 Portland 27

Mobile at Fargo-Mobile has had the best start in franchise history, and still there are doubters of the Seagulls. Fargo has risen up in FIFL, but just being competitive should not be the end goal for any franchise. Fargo's star quarterback Kurt Warner has had a tough time of it this year, and the Mobile defense should not make it any easier on him. The run game of Fargo has also suffered, and the Mobile run defense, probably the strength of the defense, will continue that trend. Look for Warner to throw another interception and his passer rating to hover near the bottom after week 5. James Brown and company should be able to light up defense. Look for another high scoring output from Mobile as they put to rest some doubts with another road win.
Mobile 27 Fargo 17

Wichita at Black Hills-We used to be able to call this matchup the real FIFL Bowl, but now we can only call it the game of the week. Black Hills has really fallen, and Wichita might be able to take advantage. Both clubs have gotten older at the skill positions, and the window of opportunity is closing on them. Black Hills and Wichita both come into this one with wins over lesser opponents in the last week. The home team has sat down starter Proctor in favor of the more experienced Synder. The shakeup should help the struggling Machine offense. The recipe for success for the Machine though remains unchangd though. Give Cooper the ball. The ancient feature back is averaging an astonishing 5.3 yards per carry, and is poised to break the 10, 000 yard career rushing mark. I do not think he gets it this week, but he sets himself up to easily break the mark in week 6. Wichita's offense though will probably be too much. As Morrow will get some yards on the ground, and McDonagh should do the job as usual. Look for another road winner as Wichita sweeps the season series.
Wichita 20 Black Hills 14

Austin at Lincoln-Lincoln is in dire need of a win right now, and Austin is not too much better. Both clubs could lose, but the lose might set them back in each of their tough divisional races. Lincoln is clearly not the pushover they once were. The also most talked about rematch of Gary Porter against his former club is something to keep an eye on as well. Porter has done well in Lincoln posting a 107.5 passer rating, and would love to show up his former team. Austin ground game has been in the deep freeze since Elijah Raphael was no longer a feature back, and Lincoln's defense should continue this trend. Austin is clearly the favorite, but the road is not going to be kind Austin here.
Austin 14 Lincoln 17

Mississippi at Louisiana-This is the other top divisional matchup of the week. Mississippi and Louisiana have a long history, but GM Jimmy Hanlon appears to be pulling the plug on the season after acquiring Ansel George. Louisiana is shopping its all-FIFL center Tim Mangrich. However, Mangrich will still be in the lineup against Mississippi most likely, and so Mississippi will not have a particularly easy time in the Bayou. Flowers has been great on the ground, but no one has been able to pass effectively in Louisiana. The Beast will have difficultly scoring against the Firedog defense, but that is not likely the other way around. The road teams should get another win, with Foggie having another big week against the Bayou Beast defense. The run game will struggle, and that will likely keep the game close, but the Firedogs should improve to 3-1-1 after this week.
Mississippi 20 Louisiana 13

Madison at Dayton-Well this also use to be a premium matchup, but now it is just a good game to watch. Dayton looks to rebound at home against Madison after a series of tough road games. Dayton should be able to pull out the home win. Madison's passing offense with Franzer at the helm has been terrible. Why Fuentes is rotting on the bench right now is anyone's guess. Wallwork will put together a nice display against a vulernable Madison pass defense. Omar Bacon has had a nice season, but don't look for him to pad his stats against a tough Dayton run defense. In the end, this is probably the game that starts Dayton's run to the top of the divison.
Madison 17 Dayton 24

Fort Wayne at St. Louis-Terrible matchup for people to watch, but the games got to be played I guess. Fort Wayne should have no problem getting a rare road win against this squad. St. Louis looks to make a run at Fort Wayne's record of an 0-14 season by sending away all the talent on the roster. Stingley's loss will be felt immediately in this one. As John Fourcade should be able to light up the St. Louis defense like he used to for Dayton. St. Louis should also be able to move the ball through the air against a bad pass defense. There might be some scoring in this one, but I think each team will self-destruct enough to keep this a low scoring affair.
Fort Wayne 19 St. Louis 10

[TC]

Mike,

I voted for more Ivanic!!

Good to see some more activity on the boards and I'm always interested in reading your posts.

We did beat Colorado on their home field last year in a 37-31 shootout, and while I don't think we'll have a repeat of the same this season, in this league you just never know!

-TC

[banghart]

I voted for more Ivanic!!

We did beat Colorado on their home field last year in a 37-31 shootout, and while I don't think we'll have a repeat of the same this season, in this league you just never know!

Thanks for the kind words, and I will try to deliver more Ivanic. I don't know how much I will be able to do during the semester, but I will try to put to come through with at least this article a week.

As far as your game goes, I looked at the numbers, and I really think that Blake will be the deciding factor. My guess is he has a big game against your defense, and Colorado gets a close win. However, crazy things have happened this year (my club as the last undefeated one is one example), but Colorado definitely is the favorite on their home turf.

Mike

[TC]

As far as your game goes, I looked at the numbers, and I really think that Blake will be the deciding factor. My guess is he has a big game against your defense, and Colorado gets a close win. However, crazy things have happened this year (my club as the last undefeated one is one example), but Colorado definitely is the favorite on their home turf.

WOW! Were you ever right about Blake! I will NEVER use those defensive PPPs again...tried to change things up a bit hoping to keep Christian guessing--BACKFIRE!!

And, on top of that Gruden's out for 3 weeks and now 2 DL are injured. I vote for a 'do-over' for Week 5!

-TC